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21世纪以来,人口的快速老龄化已成为我国人口发展的新常态,高龄化和失能化则是近年来人口老龄化过程中伴随的重要发展趋势,老年人长期护理服务需求不断膨胀。本文通过构建老年人长期护理服务需求评估指标体系,利用二元Logistic模型对河南省的抽样调查数据进行实证分析。结果表明:年龄、户口类型、子女数、日常生活能力、情绪表达能力、儿子儿媳或女儿等变量对老年人长期护理服务需求有显著影响。
Since the 21st century, the rapid population aging has become a new normal in China’s population development. Aging and incapacitation are the important developmental trends accompanying the aging of population in recent years. The demand for long-term care services for the elderly is constantly expanding. In this paper, we establish a demand assessment index system for the elderly long-term care services and use the binary Logistic model to conduct empirical analysis of sample survey data in Henan Province. The results showed that the variables such as age, type of household registration, number of children, daily living ability, emotional expression, son-in-law or daughter had significant effects on the long-term care needs of the elderly.