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房地产作为一个周期性行业,总是沿着繁荣—衰退—萧条—复苏几个阶段循环演进。在繁荣时期,房价快速上涨,超出长期均衡水平,刺激项目新开工和贷款大幅增长,房企利润率大幅提高,拿地意愿高涨,土地成交溢价率大幅上升。繁荣过后就是衰退。繁荣时期房价的大幅上涨,使得需求开始萎缩,市场表现出有价无量的情况,随着量价的持续背离,房价开始下跌,市场的供应则随着前期项目的竣工仍惯性增长,不过不久也开始萎缩。这就是衰退时期。
As a cyclical industry, real estate has always evolved along several stages of boom-recession-depression-recovery. In the boom period, the rapid rise in house prices surpassing the long-run equilibrium to stimulate the project’s new start-ups and loans to grow sharply. The profit margin of the real estate enterprises has risen sharply and their willingness to take land has risen sharply. The premium of the land transaction has risen sharply. After the boom is a recession. In the boom period, the sharp rise in housing prices caused the demand to start to shrink. The market showed a priceless situation. With the continuous departure of the volume and price, housing prices began to fall. The supply of the market continued to grow as the previous projects were completed. However, soon Start to shrink. This is the recession period.