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针对应急救援的特殊性(主观性与客观性、确定性与不确定性的混合),为实现应急演练过程与结果的有效评价,建立了一种主客观混合的层次评价体系。首先,分析“负面事件”信息熵和复杂网络各项测度等应急演练评价指标的合理性,指出应急演练评价的特殊性。用传统单一评价方法已经无法满足需求。其次,在分析经典熵权法不足的基础上,构造并分析了层次熵权法并给出核心的算法步骤;分析了层次熵权法和AHP方法的优缺点和各自的特点,并构造了基于层次熵权法和AHP方法的混合评价体系模型、给出了融合算法中修正值的计算方法。最后,运用本文提出的方法对化工厂应急演练中各项指标进行分析建模,通过一个应用案例证明了该混合评价方法的可行性与有效性。本文为应急演练过程与结果的有效评价提供新的方法。
In view of the particularity of emergency rescue (the mixture of subjectivity and objectivity, certainty and uncertainty), a subjective and objective hierarchical evaluation system is established to achieve the effective evaluation of the emergency drilling process and results. Firstly, this paper analyzes the rationality of evaluation indexes of emergency drills, such as information entropy of “negative events” and measures of complex networks, and points out the particularity of emergency drills evaluation. With the traditional single evaluation method has been unable to meet the demand. Secondly, based on the analysis of the inadequacies of the classical entropy method, the hierarchical entropy method is constructed and analyzed, and the core algorithm steps are given. The advantages and disadvantages of AHP and AHP are analyzed, Hierarchy entropy method and AHP method, a method to calculate the correction value in the fusion algorithm is given. Finally, the method proposed in this paper is used to analyze and model various indicators in the emergency response of chemical plants. The feasibility and effectiveness of this hybrid evaluation method are proved through an application case. This article provides a new method for the effective evaluation of emergency drills and results.