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文章引入STIRPAT模型对1978—2014年耕地面积变化及其相关因素分别进行单位根检验、协整关系检验,并建立误差修正模型。研究结果表明,短期内,人口的增加、经济的不合理发展、城镇化进程的推进是导致耕地面积减少的主要原因,产业结构的优化对于耕地的保护具有促进作用。长期内,人口的减少、产业结构的优化、城镇化进程的推进有利于耕地的保护。研究认为,保护耕地资源可以从产业结构优化、统筹规划城镇化建设、完善农地征收制度等方面入手提供相应的政策对策。
This paper introduces the STIRPAT model to test the change of cultivated land area and its related factors from 1978 to 2014, and test the unitary relations and establish the error correction model. The results show that in the short term, the population increase, the irrational economic development and the progress of urbanization are the main reasons leading to the decrease of cultivated land area. The optimization of industrial structure can promote the protection of cultivated land. In the long term, population reduction, optimization of industrial structure and advancement of urbanization will be conducive to the protection of cultivated land. The study suggests that the protection of arable land resources can provide corresponding policy countermeasures from the aspects of optimizing industrial structure, making overall plans for urbanization and perfecting the system of collecting farmland.