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本文对成都市东城区1974～1989年传染病死因资料,采用曲线拟合、指数平滑法和B—J模型三类时间序列预测方法对历年传染病总死亡率和位居传染病死因首位的肺结核死亡率进行了拟合,建立了最优预测模型,并进行了预测,为今后防疫工作的决策提供一种有效的预测方法。
In this paper, the causes of infectious diseases in Dongcheng District of Chengdu from 1974 to 1989 were analyzed. The three series of time series forecasting methods, curve fitting, exponential smoothing and B-J model, were used to analyze the overall mortality and the first place of infectious disease Mortality was fitted, the optimal prediction model was established, and the prediction was made to provide an effective prediction method for the future epidemic prevention decision-making.