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物价不断上涨引起了业界对通货膨胀问题的关注。近期PPI、CPI再次出现倒挂使物价问题更加复杂,PPI、CPI倒挂之谜成为人们争论的热点。为此,本文结合我国具体的市场结构,对价格决定机制作长时段考察。研究发现。非对称供求结构是造成PPI、CPI倒挂的主要原因。①我国消费市场具有供给过剩与稀缺并存二重性特征。工业消费品属于买方市场,厂商转嫁商品生产成本的能力很弱;食品及居住类消费品短期内供给缺乏弹性而难以迅速调整供求缺口,外部冲击造成该类商品出现短缺现象。由于该类商品消费需求缺乏价格弹性导致消费价格水平迅速攀升.从而主导CPI上涨及消费支出总量同向波动。②长期以来,我国经济增长的投资驱动特征促使投资总水平不断高企.加大对生产资料的需求,从而推动PPI的不断上涨。因此,投资需求的拉动是PPI总体增幅不断高企的主要原因。③PPI几乎不向CPI传导。而PPI、CPI倒挂的主要原因在于投资驱动和消费持续低迷综合作用的结果。为此。当前以要素价格管制及货币紧缩的反通货膨胀政策可能无法有效解决物价长期的深层次矛盾。宏观通货膨胀调控必须兼顾要素市场与消费市场的非对称供求结构。必须着力于投资需求与消费需求的结构性调整。
Rising prices have aroused the industry’s concern about the issue of inflation. Recent PPI, CPI appeared upside down so that the issue of price is more complicated, PPI, CPI upside down the mystery has become the hot debate. To this end, this article combined with China’s specific market structure, price determination mechanism for a long period of inspection. The study found. Asymmetric supply and demand structure is caused by PPI, CPI upside down the main reason. ① China’s consumer market has the dual characteristics of excess supply and scarcity. Industrial consumer goods belong to the buyer’s market, and the ability of manufacturers to pass down the cost of producing goods is very weak. In the short term, the supply of food and residential consumer goods lacks elasticity and it is difficult to rapidly adjust the supply and demand gap. External shocks cause the shortage of such goods. Due to the lack of price elasticity of consumer demand for such commodities, the consumer price level has rapidly risen, thus leading the rise in CPI and the total amount of consumer spending to fluctuate in the same direction. ② For a long time, the investment-driven characteristics of China’s economic growth have led to the continual rise of the overall investment level, and the demand for means of production has been increased, thus pushing up the PPI. Therefore, the pull of investment demand is the main reason for the continuous increase of PPI overall. ③ PPI almost no conduction to the CPI. The PPI, CPI upside down mainly due to the combination of investment-driven and sustained downturn in consumer outcomes. to this end. The current anti-inflation policy with factor price control and monetary tightening may not effectively solve the long-term deep-seated contradictions in prices. Macro-inflation control must take into account the asymmetric supply and demand structure between factor markets and consumer markets. Must focus on the structural adjustment of investment demand and consumer demand.