近些年来,我国边疆民族性突发事件频频发生,由此造成的经济损失与政治影响尤为惨痛,这不仅严重阻碍了边疆地区的经济发展和社会稳定,而且也严重威胁了民族团结和国家安全,因此,边疆民族性突发事件已成为党和政府无法回避而急需着力解决的热点和难点问题。故本文在群体性突发事件研究成果的基础上,首先深入分析边疆民族性突发事件的形成诱因及其发展趋势,随后以前景理论为分析工具,构建基于主导信息与情感因子的个体行为决策模型以及基于主导信息流的群体行为决策模型,在此基础上探究民族性突发事件中主体的决策行为及其演化规律,为采取有针对性的应对措施提供决策支持。 In recent years, frequent ethnic nationality incidents in our country have taken place. The resulting economic losses and political impact have been particularly painful. This not only seriously hindered the economic development and social stability in the border areas, but also seriously threatened national unity and national security Therefore, the sudden occurrence of ethnic nationality in border areas has become a hot and difficult issue that the party and the government can not avoid but urgently needs to make efforts to solve. Therefore, based on the research results of mass emergencies, this paper firstly analyzes in depth the formation inducement and its development trend of ethnic ethnic contingencies in the frontier regions, and then uses the foreground theory as the analysis tool to construct the individual behavior decision based on the dominant information and emotional factors Model and group behavior decision-making model based on dominant information flow, on the basis of which, it explores the subject’s decision-making behavior and its evolvement rule in national ethnic emergency, and provides decision-making support for taking pertinent countermeasures.