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本文基于我国自1986年至2017年的金融市场及经济增长数据,采用最小二乘回归对金融杠杆对经济增长的影响进行了相关研究。实证结果表明,金融杠杆对经济增长的影响存在“倒U型”效应,当金融杠杆处于临界值之前时,宏观经济加杠杆会带来经济增速加快,一旦超过临界值将产生相反作用;另一方面去杠杆化对经济增长具有一定的负向冲击;同时,金融杠杆的影响效应将随着金融市场的发展程度升高而进一步加强。因此我国在利用金融杠杆及防范系统性风险中应谨慎遵从金融市场的发展规律。
Based on the data of China’s financial market and economic growth from 1986 to 2017, this paper uses least-squares regression to study the impact of financial leverage on economic growth. The empirical results show that the impact of financial leverage on economic growth is “inverted U-shaped” effect. When the financial leverage is before the critical value, macroeconomic plus leverage will lead to faster economic growth, once the threshold is exceeded will have the opposite effect On the other hand, deleveraging has a negative impact on economic growth. Meanwhile, the effect of financial leverage will be further strengthened as the development of financial markets grows. Therefore, China should carefully follow the law of development of financial markets in using financial leverage and preventing systemic risks.