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中美贸易关系是WTO安排下的委托—代理关系,双方贸易争端、贸易剩余分配、贸易不均衡缺口、中美和世界福利由中美成本因素、汇率、联合风险偏好、双边贸易不确定性和贸易相关性等五大因素内生决定。在五大因素约束下,中美贸易争端是贸易剩余分配而不是固定分配的争端,是实现双边贸易剩余分配合约修订的手段和反馈机制;贸易剩余分配是争端的目标和激励力量,贸易不平衡作为双边贸易博弈的结果以及争端启动和剩余分配调节的显示信号,指示着双边争端变动的方向。根据本文模型,中美五大因素对双边贸易争端、贸易剩余分配、贸易不平衡、中美与世界福利的影响具有非对称性和不确定性,具体影响依赖双方五大因素的状态组合。模型模拟表明,人民币汇率升值将严重损害中国和世界贸易福利而美国则因此受益,因此美国有继续扩大贸易争端和期待人民币升值的激励,中国将面临来自美方更大的贸易争端压力。
The trade relations between China and the United States are the principal-agent relationship under the WTO arrangements. The trade disputes between the two sides, the distribution of trade surplus and the unbalanced trade gap are caused by the Sino-U.S. Cost factor, exchange rate, joint risk appetite, bilateral trade uncertainty and trade Relevance of five major factors endogenous decision. Under the five factors, the Sino-U.S. Trade dispute is a dispute over trade surplus rather than fixed allocation. It is a means and feedback mechanism for the revision of the contract for the distribution of the surplus of bilateral trade. The trade surplus distribution is the target and incentive force of the dispute. Trade imbalances The outcome of bilateral trade games as well as signals of the initiation of disputes and the regulation of surplus distribution are indicative of the direction of changes in bilateral disputes. According to this model, the five major factors of China and the United States have asymmetry and uncertainty on the bilateral trade disputes, the distribution of trade surplus, the trade imbalance, the Sino-U.S. Welfare and the world welfare. The specific impact depends on the state combinations of the five major factors. The model simulations show that the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will seriously damage the welfare of China and the world trade while the United States will benefit from it. Therefore, the United States will continue to expand trade disputes and look forward to the encouragement of RMB appreciation. China will face greater pressure from the U.S. trade dispute.