采用HP滤波法对我国1999年～2011年季度非寿险市场承保赔付率进行研究,发现我国存在3～5年的非寿险承保利润周期现象。通过建立回归模型分析方法证明经济周期对承保利润率周期有显著影响,进而采用VAR模型的脉冲响应和方差分解考查经济周期对承保周期的具体贡献率。研究结果表明整个经济变量波动共同解释作用达到22%,远远超过了其他干扰项带来的影响。 Using HP filter method to study the quarterly non-life insurance market coverage in China from 1999 to 2011, we find there is a 3 to 5-year non-life underwriting profit cycle in our country. By establishing a regression model analysis method, it is proved that the economic cycle has a significant impact on the underwriting profitability cycle, and then the VAR model’s impulse response and variance decomposition are used to examine the specific contribution rate of the economic cycle to the underwriting cycle. The results show that the common interpretation of the volatility of the entire economic variables reaches 22%, far exceeding the impact caused by other disturbance items.