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笔者在分析了水库实时防洪调度与设计阶段防洪调度的差别后,对在实时调度可以较大幅度地提高水库效益的两种主要措施──分期防洪调度、预报调度,在实施中应注意的问题作了探讨。分期防洪调度应注意摸清分期洪水的规律;正确划分分期时段;按规范的规定和方法计算分期设计洪水;依分期设计洪水拟定分期汛限水位。预报调度必须细致地编制预报调度方案,尽快建设自动测报系统。挖掘水库潜力关键是对来水尽早、尽准确的预知,由于不可能完全预知而具风险,预知的程度正是风险大小的所在。
After analyzing the differences between the real-time flood control and the flood control in the design stage, the author analyzed two main measures that can greatly improve the reservoir efficiency in real-time dispatching-flood control, forecast and scheduling, problems that should be noticed in the implementation Made a discussion. Staging flood control scheduling should pay attention to find out the law of staging flood; correctly divide the staging period; according to the rules and methods to calculate the staged design flood; design staged flood season water level by stages. Forecast scheduling must be carefully prepared forecast scheduling program, as soon as possible to build automatic measurement system. The key to tap the potential of the reservoir is to predict the incoming water as early as possible and to make accurate predictions. Since it is impossible to predict the potential of a reservoir at full risk, the degree of prediction is exactly where the risk lies.