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目的构建中国疟疾风险评估指标体系,为我国疟疾风险预警工作提供参考依据。方法通过文献研究初步确定疟疾风险评估指标体系,抽取24名从事相关领域的专家参与第1轮指标的筛选,采用熵值法对咨询结果进行优化。结果专家对所有指标熟悉程度的得分均>7分,权威系数均>8分,专家咨询的协调系数为0.212(χ~2=121.876,P<0.01);经过熵值法优化调整后疟疾病例数、居民夏季室外暴露时间、疫区流入人员数量和政府疟疾风险关注度指标权重上调幅度较大,权重依次为0.175 1、0.141 0、0.100 6、0.103 7,最终得到一套涵盖2个一级指标、8个二级指标、26个三级指标的疟疾风险评估指标体系。结论采用德尔菲法与熵值法相结合进行疟疾风险评估具有一定优势;此评估指标体系评估内容较为全面系统,与实际工作中疟疾风险的发生紧密相关,能较为有效的评估某一地区的疟疾风险。
Objective To establish a malaria risk assessment index system in China and provide a reference for early warning of malaria risk in China. Methods Based on the literature review, the index system of malaria risk assessment was initially identified. Twenty-four experts in related fields were selected to participate in the screening of the first round of indicators. The entropy method was used to optimize the consultation results. Results The experts’ scores of familiarity with all the indexes were all higher than 7, the authoritative coefficient was> 8, and the coordination coefficient of expert consultation was 0.212 (χ ~ 2 = 121.876, P <0.01). The number of adjusted malaria cases , Residents exposed to outdoor time in summer, the number of inflows in the epidemic area and the attention index of malaria risk of the government increased by a large margin, the weights were 0.175 1,0.141 0,0.100 6,0.103 7, finally got a set of two first-level indicators , 8 second-level indicators, 26 third-level indicators of malaria risk assessment index system. Conclusion The combination of Delphi method and entropy method has some advantages in malaria risk assessment. The assessment system of evaluation index system is more comprehensive and systematic, which is closely related to the malaria risk in the actual work and can effectively evaluate the malaria risk in a certain area .