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利用黄河源区有关水文、气象台站观测资料,对河源区各分区气候变化特征及各分区径流深对气候变化的敏感性进行了分析.结果表明:有器测资料以来的近50a间,河源区气温与全球变暖有着较好的对应关系,各区平均气温均呈不同程度的波动上升态势;而降水量的变化比较复杂,区域性差异较大;河源区径流的变化与降水量、气温的变化之间存在较显著的非线性关系.由于气温的持续上升与主要产流区降水的持续减少,区域径流量呈持续减少的趋势.总体上,河源区各分区径流对降水变化的敏感程度要强于气温,但吉迈以上区域径流对气温变化的敏感性要强于其下游其它两个区域.
Based on the observation data of hydrological and meteorological stations in the source region of the Yellow River, the climate change characteristics of each subarea in Heyuan region and the sensitivity of subarea runoff depth to climate change were analyzed. The results show that in the past 50 years, The temperature and the global warming have a good corresponding relationship, the average temperature in each area showed varying degrees of fluctuation; the change of precipitation was relatively complicated and the regional differences were quite large; the variation of runoff and precipitation and temperature in the Heyuan area There is a significant non-linear relationship between them.As the temperature continues to rise and the precipitation continues to decline in the main producing area, the regional runoff tends to decrease.Generally, the runoff in Heyuan district is more sensitive to precipitation changes However, the regional runoff over Jimai is more sensitive to the temperature change than the other two regions at its downstream.