近年来,一系列重特大事故的发生,都是事故责任单位及有关责任人由于“意想不到”的问题所导致。对于这个说法,笔者持反对意见。正如海因里希安全法则所揭示的:在一件重大事故背后必有29件轻度的事故,还有300件潜在隐患。事故是一种不经常发生和不希望有的意外事件,这些意外事件发生的概率一般较小,就是人们所称的小概率事件。由于这些小概率事件在大多数情况下不发生,所以往往被人们忽视,产生侥幸心理和麻痹大意思想,这恰恰是 In recent years, a series of major accidents have occurred because of the “unexpected” issue of the unit responsible for the accident and the responsible persons. For this argument, I disagree. As Heinrich’s law of safety reveals, 29 minor accidents and 300 potential risks must follow behind a major accident. Accident is an infrequent and unwanted accident, the probability of these accidents are generally smaller, is what people call a small probability event. Since these small-probability incidents do not occur in most cases, they are often overlooked and give rise to chances and paralysis, which is precisely