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2013年,世界经济仍将延续低速增长态势,但对刺激政策的依赖程度降低,复苏基础趋于稳固。美国经济增速将略高于去年,欧元区仍难摆脱负增长,日本有望维持低速增长态势,主要新兴经济体增速放缓态势有望扭转。全球金融形势将有所好转,但出现动荡的可能性依然存在。国际大宗商品价格仍将高位震荡,但大幅上涨的可能性不大。主要发达国家财政政策仍将趋紧,货币政策有望继续宽松。我国仍将面临外需不足、贸易摩擦增多、输入性通胀压力增大,以及热钱冲击等严峻挑战。
In 2013, the world economy will continue its slow growth but its dependence on stimulus will be weakened, and the foundation for its recovery will stabilize. The U.S. economic growth will be slightly higher than last year, the euro zone is still hard to get rid of negative growth, Japan is expected to maintain a low growth rate, and the slowdown in growth of major emerging economies is expected to be reversed. The global financial situation will be somewhat improved, but the possibility of turmoil remains. International commodity prices will remain high and volatile, but the possibility of a sharp rise is unlikely. The fiscal policies of the major developed countries will continue to tighten, and monetary policy is expected to continue to be relaxed. China will still face the severe challenges of insufficient external demand, increased trade frictions, increased inflationary pressures on imports and the impact of hot money shocks.