在苏、中、美、日地震预报研究的先进国家中,正在一面重新认识不期而遇的难点,一面摸索新的出路。1982年夏季,欧洲地震学会在英国利兹开会。在以“地震预报的战略”为题的讨论会上邀请了苏、美、中、日等被称作“地震预报的发达国家”的代表参加,笔者是唯一的一个日本人。实际上,这些“发达国家”都既经历了地震预报的可喜尝试,也有过许多教训。十多年前,可以预报地震的观测手段不断被发现,几乎令人相信,只要加强监测,就能轻而易举 Among the advanced countries that are studying the earthquake prediction in the Soviet Union, China, the United States and Japan, they are exploring a new way out of their way to re-understanding the difficulties they encounter unexpectedly. In the summer of 1982, the European Seismological Society met in Leeds, England. At the seminar entitled “Strategy for Earthquake Prediction”, representatives from the so-called “developed countries for earthquake prediction” such as the Soviet Union, the United States, China, Japan were invited to participate. The author is the only Japanese. In fact, all these “developed countries” have experienced both the pleasant attempt of earthquake prediction and many lessons learned. More than a decade ago, observational means of predicting earthquakes are constantly being discovered, almost convincing, and as long as monitoring is strengthened, it is easy