美国好莱坞著名制片人塞缪尔·戈尔德温(Samuel Goldwyn)曾说过:我们不应该妄作预测,尤其是有关未来的预测。就科学技术而言,预测结果往往会失之偏颇,对未来的期望不是过高就是过低。上世纪60年代人们曾预测:2000年以前人类可以去月球度假,结果希望完全落了空。而另一 Samuel Goldwyn, a famous Hollywood producer in the United States, once said: We should not make any predictions, especially those concerning the future. In the case of science and technology, the forecast result tends to be biased, the expectation of the future not too high or too low. In the 1960s, people had predicted that before the year 2000 humans could go on a lunar holiday and the result was hopefully completely empty. And the other one