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我国经济正处在转型的关键期,经济增长面临较大波动的考验,因此探究经济波动率对潜在经济增长率的影响,分析二者之间的联系具有重要意义。本文通过建立四变量时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)模型,从时间维度和时点维度分析变量之间的动态反应,得到如下结论:宏观经济风险的经济波动率对潜在经济增长率的影响效果具有短期和长期的差异性,即经济波动率冲击对潜在经济增长率在短期内的影响是正向的,在长期内影响则变为负向。故当整体宏观经济的风险不确定性出现暂时性增加,国家应侧重实施旨在长期降低经济波动率的政策,而不仅仅是着眼于短期内的政策效果。
China’s economy is at a critical period of transition and economic growth is facing greater volatility. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the impact of economic volatility on the potential economic growth rate and to analyze the relationship between the two. In this paper, through the establishment of a four-variable time-varying parametric auto-regressive (TVP-VAR) model, the dynamic response between variables is analyzed from the time dimension and the time dimension. The conclusions are as follows: The economic volatility of macroeconomic risk has a significant impact on the potential economic growth rate The effect has short-term and long-term differences, that is, the impact of economic volatility on the potential economic growth rate in the short term is positive and in the long term the impact is negative. Therefore, when there is a temporary increase in the overall macroeconomic risk uncertainty, the state should focus on the implementation of policies aimed at reducing the economic volatility over the long term, not just on the short-term policy effects.