本文在现有宏观层面测算资本回报率的方法的基础上进行改进,将风险因素纳入基本模型探索消除不确定性的资本回报率的测算方法,并进一步分两个层次考察我国是否存在投资过度。通过采用1993—2013年中国29个省份的面板数据进行实证研究,可以发现:(1)消除不确定性的资本回报率指标优于资本回报率指标;(2)省际的消除不确定性的资本回报率处于8%到15%的区间范围;(3)区域间消除不确定性的资本回报率的时间趋势一致,但绝对大小存在显著差异,随着经济发展阶段不断上升其表现出明显的“倒U型”特征;(4)中国的投资过度问题亟需重视,其中河北等9省已出现第二层次投资过度,北京等12省已接近第二层次投资过度的临界水平,余下8省没有达到第二层次的投资过度。 Based on the existing methods of measuring the return on capital at the macro level, this paper improves the risk factors into the basic model and explores the method of calculating the capital return to eliminate the uncertainty, and examines whether there is overinvestment in our country at two levels. Empirical studies using panel data from 29 provinces in China from 1993 to 2013 show that: (1) the index of return on capital for eliminating uncertainty is superior to the index of return on capital; (2) The rate of return on capital is in the range of 8% to 15%. (3) The time trend of regional capital returns to eliminate uncertainty is the same, but the absolute size shows significant differences. As the economic development stage continues to rise, it shows obvious (4) China needs to pay more attention to overinvestment issues, among which there are already over-investment in the second level in 9 provinces such as Hebei and other 12 provinces such as Beijing have approached the critical level of over-investment in the second level. The rest 8 provinces did not reach the second level of over-investment.