我国产能过剩风险及治理

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尽管适度产能过剩是市场经济的一种常态,但20世纪90年代末至今,我国先后已有4次较为严重的大面积产能过剩,可谓“屡犯屡治,屡治屡犯”的痼疾。本文通过对产能利用率的纵向和横向对比,梳理出衡量产能利用率的绝对和相对指标;在此基础上重点对我国分行业、分地区的产能利用率变化情况、影响因素及其风险作了实证分析,并对产能过剩的治理思路、方法提出了建议。主要结论是:过去一个时期我国经济运行中屡屡发生的持续性、普遍性产能过剩,不同于市场经济下的正常周期波动,主要源于长期计划经济体制下,政府主导资源配置妨碍市场机制有效出清过剩产能,是传统体制下粗放型增长方式弊端的集中体现。随着中国经济逐步步入新常态,化解过剩产能必须从过去简单的数量增减和转移转变到提质增效、技术进步和劳动生产率提高上来。按照搞对价格、公平竞争、创新驱动、强化约束的总体思路,着力健全化解产能过剩风险的市场机制和配套政策措施,大力推动金融创新,发挥金融市场定价、风险管理以及融资功能在治理产能过剩中的积极作用。 Although modest overcapacity is a normal state of the market economy, China has already had four serious overcapacity cases in the late 1990s, which are described as “frequent repeat and repeat treatment”. . Based on the vertical and horizontal comparison of capacity utilization, this paper sort out the absolute and relative indicators to measure the capacity utilization rate. Based on this, we focus on the changes of capacity utilization rate, influencing factors and risks of our country in different industries and sub-regions Empirical analysis, and put forward suggestions on the ideas and methods of overcapacity control. The main conclusions are as follows: The persistent and universal overcapacity that occurs frequently in our country’s economy in the past period is different from the normal cyclical fluctuations under the market economy, mainly due to the long-term planned economic system, the government-led allocation of resources impeding the effective market mechanism Clear excess capacity, the traditional system of extensive growth under the shortcomings of the concentrated embodiment. As China’s economy gradually steps into the new normal, the excess capacity to be resolved must shift from the simple increase, decrease, transfer of numbers in the past to the improvement of quality, efficiency, technological progress and labor productivity. In accordance with the general idea of ​​engaging in price, fair competition, innovation and reinforcement, efforts should be made to improve the market mechanism and supporting policies and measures for overcapacity risks, vigorously promote financial innovation, make full use of financial market pricing, risk management and financing functions to control overcapacity In the positive role.
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