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根据海上交通安全事故统计数据显示,船舶搁浅事故是主要的海上交通安全事故之一。为了研究船舶搁浅事故的发生机理,收集了我国东部海域部分海事局辖区的船舶搁浅事故样本。首先从人为因素、环境因素和船舶因素三方面分析导致船舶搁浅事故的原因,确定网络节点。然后找出每起搁浅事故的事故链,并建立船舶搁浅事故贝叶斯网络模型。再对建立的贝叶斯网络模型进行仿真,选取21起船舶搁浅事故对建立的模型进行验证,确定模型的有效性。最后,利用HUGIN软件找出船舶搁浅事故各影响因素的致因概率,得到导致船舶搁浅事故的致因链。在人为因素方面,瞭望不当和不熟悉航道情况占据的比例最高;在船舶因素方面,舵机设备故障对船舶搁浅事故影响最大;在环境因素方面,风/浪/流对船舶搁浅事故影响最大。
According to the statistics of maritime traffic accidents, the accident of the ship being stranded is one of the major maritime traffic accidents. In order to study the mechanism of ship stranded accidents, a sample of ship stranded accidents in some maritime areas in the eastern part of China was collected. First of all, we analyze the causes of ship stranded accidents from three aspects of human factors, environmental factors and ship factors to determine the network nodes. Then find out the accident chain of every stranded accident and establish the Bayesian network model of ship stranded accident. Then the Bayesian network model is established to simulate the model, and 21 ship stranded incidents are selected to validate the established model to confirm the validity of the model. Finally, using HUGIN software to find out the causal probabilities of various factors that cause the accident of the ship to be stranded and get the cause chain which caused the ship to run aground. In the aspect of man-made factors, the proportion of improper lookout and unfamiliar navigation channel occupation is the highest. In terms of ship factors, the failure of steering gear equipment has the greatest impact on the ship stranded accidents. In terms of environmental factors, wind / wave / current has the greatest impact on the ship stranded accident.