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采用2004—2011年31个省(市、区)的数据,对中国化肥消费强度变化的驱动效应进行了测度和时空差异比较,并进一步对影响化肥消费强度变化的因素进行了实证分析。结果表明:①2004—2011年,我国化肥消费强度呈显著上升趋势,农业生产结构调整和化肥利用效率变动共同推动了化肥消费强度的增加,且化肥利用效率贡献率高于结构调整贡献率。②不同地区化肥消费强度变化的驱动效应不同。结构调整效应负向驱动地区多位于我国东部地区,效率效应负向驱动地区多位于我国西部地区。③经济发展水平、农业产业结构、人均耕地规模、技术进步、上一期化肥消费强度、城市化发展水平和耕地质量等因素对化肥消费强度产生重要影响。
Based on the data of 31 provinces (cities and districts) in China from 2004 to 2011, the driving effects of changes in the intensity of fertilizer consumption in China were measured and compared with each other in time and space, and the factors affecting the changes in the intensity of fertilizer consumption were further analyzed. The results showed that: ①The intensity of fertilizer consumption in China increased significantly from 2004 to 2011. The adjustment of agricultural production structure and the change of fertilizer use efficiency contributed to the increase of fertilizer consumption intensity, and the contribution rate of fertilizer use efficiency was higher than the contribution rate of structural adjustment. ② The driving effect of the change of fertilizer consumption intensity in different regions is different. The negative effect of structural adjustment is mainly located in the eastern part of our country where the negative-displacement-driven areas are located in the western part of China. (3) The level of economic development, the structure of agricultural industry, the size of per capita arable land, technological progress, the intensity of previous fertilizer consumption, the level of urbanization and the quality of arable land and other factors have an important impact on the intensity of fertilizer consumption.