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评估当下中国经济状况,必然要提到城镇失业率。我们的研究显示,失业率水平虽然比国家统计局的数字高,却呈现下降趋势。这很大程度上归因于2008年以后,特别是2011年以来,宏观调控的压力使经济结构发生了巨大改变。研究还显示,服务业创造就业的速度远远大于制造业。这个变化可以用来解释经济下行过程中,我们为何有着非常稳健的就业增长。我们有大量的新兴行业部门,现在尚未很好地纳入到统计当中。这些新兴行业在很大程度上反映了中国经济发生的变化,最重要的是新经济业态不断扩张。这些与我们国家的两个有利条件密不可分:第一,中国有巨大的国内消费人群和市场,这是很多国家不具备的。第二,中国有非常好的人力资本积累。这两个条件的结合,造就了中国就业创造的活力。
To assess the current economic situation in China, we must mention the urban unemployment rate. Our research shows that although the unemployment rate is higher than the number of national statistical offices, it shows a downward trend. This is due in large part to the drastic changes in the economic structure since 2008, especially since 2011, under the pressure of macro-control. Research also shows that service industries create jobs much faster than manufacturing. This change can be used to explain why we have a very robust employment growth during the economic downturn. We have a large number of emerging industry sectors that are not yet well integrated into the statistics. To a large extent, these emerging industries reflect the changes that have taken place in China’s economy. What is most important is the continuous expansion of the new economy. These are inseparable from the two favorable conditions in our country. First, China has a huge domestic consumer base and market, which many countries do not have. Second, China has a very good accumulation of human capital. The combination of these two conditions has created the vitality created by employment in China.