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中澳两国自建交以来双边贸易规模不断扩大,贸易总额增长速度不断加快。2014年11月中澳两国结束实质性自贸协定谈判,2015年中澳将签署《中澳自贸区协定》。在对中澳贸易发展现状分析的基础上,采用贸易引力模型,对面板数据进行实证分析,研究中国与澳大利亚两国建立自由贸易区对我国进口与出口的影响效果。结果表明,中国与澳大利亚建立自由贸易区对两国贸易有较强的促进作用,但对我国进口的影响大于出口。
Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Australia, the bilateral trade scale has been continuously expanded, and the total trade volume has been growing at a fast pace. China and Australia concluded the substantive FTA negotiations in November 2014, and China and Australia will sign the FTAA in 2015. Based on the analysis of the status quo of trade between China and Australia, this paper uses the trade gravity model to analyze the panel data and study the effect of the establishment of free trade area between China and Australia on China’s import and export. The results show that the establishment of a free trade zone between China and Australia has a strong impetus to the trade between the two countries, but its impact on China’s imports is greater than that on exports.