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2016年四季度,世界经济仍处于缓慢复苏进程中。发达经济体结构性改革进程总体迟缓,基础设施和企业设备投资相对低迷,经济增长内生动力不足。美国经济有望继续温和复苏,短期内可能有所加速;欧元区、日本结构性改革滞后,短期内很难摆脱低增长态势。新兴经济体在世界经济增长中的作用继续上升,但外部需求低迷、债务高企、劳动生产率提升放缓等问题对新兴经济体形成了不小制约。特朗普当选美国总统成为继英国脱欧公投后又一次“黑天鹅
In the fourth quarter of 2016, the world economy is still in a slow recovery process. The structural reforms in advanced economies were generally sluggish, the investment in infrastructure and enterprises was relatively sluggish, and the endogenous impetus to economic growth was insufficient. The U.S. economy is expected to continue its moderate recovery and may accelerate in the short term. Structural reforms in the euro zone and Japan are lagging behind and are unlikely to get out of the low-growth trend in the short term. The role of emerging economies in the world economic growth continues to rise. However, the problems of emerging economies such as sluggish external demand, high debt levels and slowing of labor productivity growth are all serious constraints. Trump was elected as the U.S. president again after the Brexit vote. ”Black Swan."