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回顾就预报地震和地震危险性问题所引出的争论!模型和方法论,试图对发生于某一特定时间、空间和震级窗内的地震,研究其发生概率定量化的统计方法是本文强调的重点。一个反复出现的主题是这样的:这种地震概率是由随时间变化的条件强度场确定的,即所研究地区的每个点都有其对应的强度(每单位时间,单位面积与体积,及震级的每一区间的条件)。本论文包含三个介绍性章节和三个实质性章节。前者分别对地震预报当前状况、地震知它们的参数、以及点过程背景作了介绍。后者介绍了背景危险性的估计、随时间变化的危险性的估计、和一些模型约特殊的例子与预报算法。本文还对地震预报与其他预报问题的一些联系进行了评论。
Review the controversy over the prediction of earthquake and seismic hazards! Models and methodologies that attempt to quantify the probability of occurrence of earthquakes that occur in a particular time, space, and magnitude window are the main points of emphasis in this paper. A recurring theme is this: The seismic probability is determined by the conditional intensity field over time, where each point of the region under study has its corresponding intensity (per unit time, unit area and volume, and Magnitude of each section of the condition). This paper includes three introductory chapters and three substantive chapters. The former introduces the current state of earthquake prediction, the parameters of earthquakes and the background of the point process respectively. The latter describes the estimation of the background risk, the estimation of the risk over time, and some models about special examples and prediction algorithms. The article also comments on some links between earthquake prediction and other forecasting issues.