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选取2001～2010年山东省原煤产量、原油产量、天然气产量、水电产量以及能源总产量的统计数据,采用灰色关联度分析模型进行分析。分析结果表明:与能源总产量关联度从大到小依次为原煤产量、天然气产量、原油产量、水电产量,分别为0.865、0.804、0.769、0.578;原煤占据山东省能源总产量的最大比重,这种严重依赖原煤的不合理能源结构制约了山东省未来实现低碳经济发展战略的目标;天然气发展迅速,在山东省能源结构中的比重将会越来越大;原油产量稳定不变,在能源结构中的比重下降;对新能源和可再生能源的开发利用不足。提出了改善山东省能源结构的建议和对策:优化能源结构,降低原煤在一次能源消费中的比例,逐步扩大原油、天然气以及新能源和可再生能源的开发和利用;调整产业结构,降低第二产业比例,大力发展现代服务业,积极培育战略性新兴产业和低碳产业;加大风能、海洋能、太阳能等新能源和可再生能源产业的投资力度和政策倾斜;采用先进、成熟的节能技术提高能源生产效率、降低能源消耗。
The statistical data of raw coal output, crude oil output, natural gas output, hydropower output and total energy output of Shandong Province from 2001 to 2010 were selected and analyzed by the gray relational analysis model. The analysis results show that the correlation degree with the total output of energy is in turn the raw coal output, natural gas output, crude oil output and hydropower output, respectively 0.865,0.804,0.769,0.578; raw coal occupies the largest proportion of Shandong’s total energy output, which The unreasonable energy structure, which relies heavily on raw coal, has constrained the goal of Shandong Province in its future strategy of achieving low-carbon economy. With the rapid development of natural gas, its share in the energy structure of Shandong Province will grow larger and larger. Crude oil output will remain stable, The proportion of the structure decreased; the development and utilization of new energy and renewable energy is not enough. Put forward suggestions and countermeasures to improve the energy structure in Shandong Province: optimize the energy structure, reduce the proportion of primary coal in primary energy consumption and gradually expand the development and utilization of crude oil, natural gas, new energy and renewable energy; adjust the industrial structure and reduce the second Industry proportion, vigorously develop the modern service industry, and actively cultivate strategic emerging industries and low-carbon industries; increase the wind power, ocean energy, solar energy and renewable energy industries such as investment and policy tilt; the use of advanced and mature energy-saving technologies Improve energy production efficiency and reduce energy consumption.