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本文针对发展中民主国家设计出一个理论框架,用以解释政治不确定性对政党发展及其动员与竞争策略的影响。作者将不确定性界定为政治行动者预测未来互动时的不精确,并识别出三种政治不确定性,即政体不确定性、经济不确定性和制度不确定性。政治不确定性在发展中民主国家尤其突出,它使这些国家的政党发展与竞争的经验模式陷入迷茫。将不确定性纳入对政党精英策略选择的解释之中,有助于更好地理解发达民主国家和发展中民主国家政党间的差异,以及不同发达民主国家政党间的细微差别。
This article devises a theoretical framework for developing democracies to explain the impact of political uncertainty on the development of political parties and their mobilization and competitive strategies. The author defines uncertainty as the inaccuracy of political actors in predicting future interactions and identifies three types of political uncertainty, namely, political uncertainty, economic uncertainty, and institutional uncertainty. Political uncertainty is particularly prominent in developing democracies, plunging the experience models of party development and competition in these countries into confusion. Incorporating uncertainty into the interpretation of the party’s elitist tactical choices helps to better understand the differences between political parties in developed and developing democracies and the nuances of parties in different developed-world democracies.