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在过去20年中,亚洲股票市场形成了非常实质的资本化。早在1982年,国际金融组织对32个初具规模的股票市场进行了纵观勘查,得到的资本总额为670亿美金,占世界股票市场总额的2.5%。而到1994年底,以上这些新兴的股票市场已经发展壮大,翻了27番,资本总额达到1.8万亿美金,在世界股票市场中的份额也一跃上升到11.8%。全球的战略投资者们更关心的一个问题是:这些亚洲国家的股票市场估价、名义国内生产总值与它们的短期市场利率之间将会有怎样的系统关联?对于欧美股票市场,一个类似的问题早在15年前就被一位名叫“若尔(1988)”的学者提出了。
For the past two decades, the Asian equity markets have formed a very substantial capitalization. As early as 1982, the international financial organizations conducted an overview survey of 32 emerging stock markets with a total capital amount of 67 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 2.5% of the total world stock market. By the end of 1994, these emerging stock markets had grown by more than 27fold. Their total capital reached 1.8 trillion U.S. dollars and their shares in world stock markets soared to 11.8%. A question that global strategic investors are more concerned about is: what are the systematic correlations between the stock market valuation of these Asian countries, their nominal GDP and their short-term market interest rates? For the European and American stock markets, a similar The problem was raised as early as 15 years ago by a scholar named “Joel (1988).”