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动态外部性与产业的全要素生产率增长紧密相连。本文基于空间面板的向量自回归模型、面板的格兰杰因果性检验与空间面板分位数回方法,利用2003~2011年省份层面三维面板数据,分析了马歇尔外部性、雅各布斯外部性、波特竞争外部性的区域产业发展效应。结论表明:动态外部性对于产业的全要素生产率增长具有显著的异质性、非线性特征;马歇尔动态外部性、波特竞争外部性与产业的全要素增长率增长,具有双向的因果互动关系,雅格布斯外部性与产业全要素增长之间仅存在单向的因果关系;空间动态面板分位数回归进一步揭示了动态外部性的产业发展效应的时空差异,在不同分位点上,马歇尔动态外部性的产业增长效应具有递减性特征,而雅各布斯和波特竞争外部性的产业发展效应则具有倒“U”型曲线特征。基于空间混合多维面板方法,分析了产业特征、区域特征及其交互影响机制引致的动态外部性产业发展效应差异的内在原因。因此,依据产业异质性特征,按照产业的生命周期,以聚集经济促进区域产业发展是实现我国产业优化升级、区域经济协调发展的有效途径。
Dynamic externalities are closely linked with the growth of total factor productivity in the industry. Based on the vector autoregressive model of spatial panel, the Granger causality test of panel and the quantile regression method of spatial panel, this paper analyzes the Marshallian externalities, Jacobian externalities , Porter competitive externalities of the regional industrial development effect. The conclusion shows that dynamic externality has significant heterogeneity and non-linear characteristics for the growth of total factor productivity of industry. Marshall dynamic externality, Porter external externality and the growth of total factor growth of industry have a two-way causal interaction, There is only one-way causal relationship between the external factors of Jacobs and the total factor growth of industries. The spatial dynamic panel quantile regression further reveals the spatiotemporal difference of industrial development effects of dynamic externalities. At different points, Marshall The industrial growth effect of dynamic externality has the characteristics of decreasing, while the industrial development effects of competitive externality of Jacobs and Porter have the characteristics of “U” curve. Based on the spatial multidimensional multidimensional panel method, this paper analyzes the inherent causes of the differences in industrial development effects caused by the industrial characteristics, regional characteristics and their interaction mechanisms. Therefore, according to the characteristics of the heterogeneity of industries and according to the life cycle of industries, it is an effective way to promote the industrial development in the region by gathering economies to optimize and upgrade our industries and to coordinate the development of regional economy.