论文部分内容阅读
目的 ]探索用气温和降雨量预报急性血吸虫病检出率的新途径。 [方法 ]收集我国湖北省四湖地区 1976～1989年急性血吸虫病检出率 (急血率 )和相应地区 7月气温和降雨量资料 ,并用 SPSS8.0软件做多元回归分析。 [结果 ]该区 1976～ 1989年年急血率 (y)与 7月份平均气温 (x2 )呈负相关 (r=- 0 .7495 ,P<0 .0 5 ) ,与 7月份平均降雨量 (x1 )呈正相关 (r=0 .735 7,P<0 .0 5 )。所获预报模型为 y=2 2 .6 33+0 .0 1172 x1 - 0 .741x2 。 71%预报数据误差率≤ 30 %。 [结论 ]预报模型需在实践中检验修正。
Objective] To explore a new way of predicting the detection rate of acute schistosomiasis with moderate temperature and rainfall. [Method] The data of acute schistosomiasis detection rate (acute blood rate) in 1976 ~ 1989 and temperature and rainfall in July of the corresponding area in the four lakes of Hubei Province in China were collected and analyzed by multiple regression analysis using SPSS8.0 software. [Results] The annual acute blood rate (y) was negatively correlated with the mean temperature in July (x2) from 1976 to 1989 (r = - 0.7495, P <0.05), and was positively correlated with the average rainfall in July x1) (r = 0.73 5, P <0.05). The forecast model obtained is y = 2 2 .6 33 +0 .0 1172 x1 - 0 .741x2. 71% forecast data error rate ≤ 30%. [Conclusion] The forecasting model needs to test and correct in practice.