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以国家气象台站的月降水与月气温资料为驱动数据、90m分辨率的数字高程模型(DEM)和第一次冰川编目的冰川分布矢量数据为基础,利用月尺度的度日模型重建了塔里木河流域各水系冰川物质平衡、融水径流序列,并应用冰川物质平衡、融水径流和平衡线高度等资料对模型进行了对比验证,表明模拟结果具有较高的可信度.对冰川物质平衡和融水径流的特征、变化趋势以及其对河流径流的贡献进行的分析表明,塔里木河流域1961~2006年平均冰川物质平衡为?139.2mm·a?1,46a冰川物质一直在加剧亏损,同期升温对冰川的影响超过降水增加的影响.塔里木河冰川融水径流的年际变化主要受控于流域内冰川的物质平衡波动,46a冰川融水径流的持续增加主要是由温度升高引起的.1961~2006年整个塔里木河流域年平均冰川融水径流量为144.16×108m3,冰川融水对河流径流的平均补给率为41.5%,并且与多年平均值相比冰川融水对河流径流的贡献在1990年之后明显增大.塔里木河流域出山径流年际变化与冰川融水径流年际变化过程基本一致,总体上呈上升趋势,并且河流径流量的增加约3/4以上源于冰川退缩的贡献.
Based on the lunar and monthly temperature data of the national meteorological station and the DEM data of 90m resolution and glacier distribution vector data of the first glacier catalog, the monthly scale of the Tarim River The glacial mass balance and melt-melt runoff series in each water system of the river basin are compared and validated by using the data of glacial mass balance, melt-water runoff and equilibrium height, which shows that the simulation results have high credibility. The characteristics of melt-water runoff, its changing trend and its contribution to the runoff of the river show that the mean material balance of the glacier in the Tarim River Basin from 1961 to 2006 was 139.2 mm · a-1,46 a. The glacier material has been aggravating the losses and warming over the same period The impact on the glacier exceeds that of the increase of precipitation.The interannual variation of glacial melt runoff in the Tarim River is mainly controlled by the material balance fluctuation of the glacier in the basin and the continuous increase of glacial melt runoff in 46a is mainly caused by the temperature increase.1961 In 2006, the annual mean glacier melt runoff in the entire Tarim River Basin was 144.16 × 108 m3. The average recharge rate of glacial melt to river runoff was 41.5% respectively, and the contribution of glacial meltwater to runoff from the glacier increased significantly after 1990. The interannual variation of the runoff in the Tarim River basin was basically consistent with that of the glacial melt runoff, and generally increased Trend, and about three-fourths of the increase in river runoff stems from the contribution of the glacier retreat.