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20世纪90年以来我国物价波动的幅度和频率明显增加,物价变化受到越来越多因素的影响,且呈现通货膨胀和通货紧缩交替更频繁的新态势,其成因也逐渐趋向多样化、复杂化。在历次的物价波动过程中,产出缺口一直是影响物价的重要指标之一。基于此,本文立足产出缺口视角,对我国物价波动的关系进行实证研究。发现产出缺口与物价之间存在明显的正向关系,其轨迹与物价波动的轨迹大致同步。最后在此基础上,提出相关的政策建议。
Since 1990s, the amplitude and frequency of price volatility in our country have obviously increased. The price change has been affected by more and more factors, presenting a new trend of alternating inflation and deflation more frequently. Their causes have also gradually become diversified and complicated . In the course of the previous price fluctuations, the output gap has always been one of the important indicators affecting the price. Based on this, this paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between price volatility in China and the perspective of output gap. It is found that there is a clear positive relationship between output gap and price, and its trajectory is roughly synchronized with that of price volatility. Finally, on this basis, put forward the relevant policy recommendations.