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本文运用动态的可计算一般均衡 ( CGE)模型 ,基于中国关于加入世界贸易组织( WTO)在市场准入方面的承诺 ,定量分析了中国加入 WTO对中国经济增长、结构调整和收入分配等方面的影响。结果表明 ,中国加入 WTO将会使中国获得很大的效率收益 ,但这一收益并不是在部门间平均分配的 ,加入 WTO也意味着较大的经济结构调整 ,并带来相应的调整成本 ,其中劳动力在部门间的转移可能是最主要的调整成本。因此 ,在积极争取加入 WTO的同时 ,采取相应措施以降低中国加入 WTO所带来的调整成本 ,将是合理的政策选择。
Based on China’s commitment on accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), this paper uses a dynamic CGE model to quantitatively analyze China’s accession to the WTO on China’s economic growth, structural adjustment and income distribution influences. The results show that China’s accession to the WTO will make China gain a great efficiency gains, but this benefit is not evenly distributed among sectors. Accession to the WTO also means greater economic restructuring and corresponding adjustment costs. Among them, the transfer of labor among departments may be the most important adjustment cost. Therefore, while actively seeking to join the WTO, adopting corresponding measures to reduce the adjustment costs brought by China’s accession to the WTO will be a reasonable policy choice.