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运用主成分分析、多目标加权求和模型、马尔可夫链和ESDA方法,在GIS技术支持下,基于吉林省中部粮食主产区24个空间单元2000年、2003年、2007年3个时间断面的数据,探讨该区城乡综合发展水平时空格局演变特征及其动力因子。研究结果表明:①区域城乡发展存在“俱乐部趋同”现象,城乡综合发展水平的空间差异趋于扩大;②区域城乡综合发展水平“两极分化”明显,高水平空间单元集中在5个地级市辖区,低水平空间单元进一步向哈大铁路沿线集聚,并在其北侧形成“哑铃”状连续分布区,该区域有可能陷于强者愈强,弱者恒弱的“马太效应”;③主成分分析结果表明,城乡经济实力、空间区位、居民收入等是吉林省中部粮食主产区城乡综合发展水平时空格局演变的主要动力因子。
Based on principal component analysis, multi-objective weighted summation model, Markov chain and ESDA method, with the support of GIS technology, based on the three time sections of 24 spatial units in the main grain producing areas of central Jilin Province in 2000, 2003 and 2007, The spatial and temporal characteristics of the overall level of urban and rural development and the dynamic factors are discussed. The results show that: (1) the phenomenon of “club convergence” exists in the development of urban and rural areas in the region, the spatial difference of urban and rural comprehensive development tends to widen; (2) the comprehensive development level of urban and rural areas is obviously “polarized” with 5 units of high level spatial units The prefecture-level municipal districts and low-level space units further gather along the Harbin-Dalian Railway and form a continuous distribution area of “dumbbell” on the north side, where the horse may be trapped in the stronger horse Too much effect "; ③The results of principal component analysis showed that the main driving forces for the spatial and temporal evolution of urban and rural comprehensive development in the main grain-producing areas in central Jilin Province were the economic strength of urban and rural areas, the spatial location and the income of residents.