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本研究采用乘数法,分别以广东省英德市公安局2015年登记在册的吸毒人员数和强制戒毒所2014年收治的吸毒人员数作为基数,估算英德市吸毒人群规模。结果显示,2015年英德市登记在册的吸毒人数3 615人,2014年强制戒毒人员603人,估计的吸毒人群总数为4 004~5 965人,分别是英德市公安机关登记在册人数的1.11~1.65倍。以乘数法估计英德市吸毒人群规模是可行的,需考虑调查样本的代表性。
In this study, the multiplier method was used to estimate the scale of drug abusers in Yingde city based on the number of drug abusers enrolled by Yingde Municipal Public Security Bureau of Guangdong Province in 2015 and the number of drug abusers admitted by compulsory drug rehabilitation centers in 2014. The results showed that in 2015, there were 3 615 registered drug abusers in Yingde City, 603 compulsory drug abusers in 2014 and an estimated total of 4 004 ~ 5 965 drug abusers, which are respectively 1.11 of the registered numbers of public security organs in Yingde City ~ 1.65 times. It is feasible to estimate the scale of drug addicts in Yingde City by the multiplier method. The representativeness of the sample survey should be considered.