技术经济分析中,蒙特卡洛方法常用于分析投资风险问题。但这一方法的使用,其实要求我们对不确定事件要有比较清楚的认识,尤其是这些因素的概率分布特征。而这一方法的实现,又需要满足比较严格的条件。一般来说,各类文献对其应用的讨论较多,而对其逻辑的分析却不多见,本文将就此做一点讨论,以体会其逻辑之美。 In technical and economic analysis, the Monte Carlo method is often used to analyze investment risk issues. However, the use of this method actually requires us to have a clearer understanding of the uncertain events, especially the probability distribution characteristics of these factors. The realization of this method, but also need to meet the more stringent conditions. In general, various types of literature on its application more discussion, and its logic analysis is rare, this article will do some discussion on this, in order to appreciate the beauty of its logic.