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为有效控制房价泡沫可能带来的房地产市场系统性风险,需要根据泡沫形成机制和影响因素有针对性地进行政策设计。本文对35个大中城市的房价泡沫水平进行测度,分析房价泡沫的形成机制,重点考察造成泡沫水平城市间差异的影响因素。结果表明,泡沫的形成同时存在自相关机制和均值回复机制,住房供给弹性、金融支持力度是影响泡沫形成机制、造成泡沫水平城市间差异的重要因素。建议通过进一步完善土地供给来调节住房供给弹性,通过加强房地产金融监管来保证必要的金融支持、防止过度的金融参与,实现有效管理房价泡沫、控制区域性和系统性市场风险的目标。
In order to effectively control the real estate market risk brought about by the housing bubble, the policy design needs to be targeted according to the bubble formation mechanism and the influencing factors. This article measures the housing bubble level in 35 cities, analyzes the formation mechanism of the price bubble, and emphatically examines the influencing factors of the urban froth level differences. The results show that there are auto-correlation mechanisms and mean-recovery mechanisms for the formation of foam. Housing supply elasticity and financial support are the important factors that affect the bubble formation mechanism and cause the urban froth level differences. It is suggested that housing supply flexibility should be adjusted by further improving the supply of land, ensuring the necessary financial support through strengthening financial regulation of real estate, preventing excessive financial participation, and achieving the goal of managing housing bubble effectively and controlling regional and systemic market risks.