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过程预报数学模型是预测生产过程变化的重要工具。人们常常习惯于用“命中率”来评估它的优劣程度。而“命中率”的高低,受允许误差限等因素影响,不能准确地反映模型的优劣程度。为弥补这一缺陷,本文作者做出了努力。通过分析比较,推导出报准率W_p,既考虑了预报值与实际值的吻合程度,又考虑到被预测数据的初始状态,较客观地反映了模型的预报准确度。
The mathematical model of process forecasting is an important tool to predict the change of production process. People are often accustomed to using the “hit rate” to assess its strengths and weaknesses. The “hit rate” level, limited by the allowable error and other factors, can not accurately reflect the strengths and weaknesses of the model. To make up for this shortcoming, the author of this article has made great efforts. Through analysis and comparison, the report rate W_p is deduced, which not only considers the coincidence degree between the predicted value and the actual value but also considers the initial state of the predicted data, which objectively reflects the prediction accuracy of the model.