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本文利用滤波法和生产函数法估算了我国1979—2014年的潜在增长率,发现自2006年以来,我国潜在增长率呈下降趋势,而且近两年实际产出均要低于潜在产出,显示经济总需求相对不足。潜在增速下降主要在于TFP增速的降低以及近年来资本增速的放缓。从供给角度看,用生产函数法所做的预测显示,未来十年的潜在增长率总体呈下降趋势:基准情形下,2015—2020年平均增长率为6.3%,2021—2025年平均增长率为5.3%;乐观情形下,2015—2020年平均增长率为7.5%,2021—2025年平均增长率为6.6%。从需求角度看,在当前收入水平及增长假设下,为了保持合理稳定的经济增长速度,保持一定比重的投资仍是关键;鼓励和促进消费则是经济保持长期稳定增长的重要手段。将供给和需求结合起来分析,未来潜在增长率趋于下降。为使经济增长尽可能达到潜在增长率,应在消费和投资之间找到促进经济稳定发展的平衡点。
This paper estimates the potential growth rate of China from 1979 to 2014 by using the method of filtering and production, and finds that since 2006, the potential growth rate of China shows a downward trend, and the actual output in recent two years is lower than the potential output, showing that The total economic demand is relatively insufficient. The potential slowdown is mainly due to the decrease of TFP growth and the slowdown of capital growth in recent years. From the perspective of supply, the forecast made by the production function method shows that the potential growth rate in the next ten years generally shows a downward trend: the average growth rate in 2015-2020 is 6.3%, and the average growth rate in 2021-2025 is 5.3%; optimistic scenario, the average growth rate of 2015-2020 was 7.5%, 2021-2025 average growth rate of 6.6%. From the demand perspective, under the current income level and growth assumptions, in order to maintain a reasonable and stable rate of economic growth, it is still crucial to maintain a certain proportion of investment. Encouraging and promoting consumption is an important means by which the economy maintains long-term and stable growth. Combined with supply and demand analysis, the potential growth rate tends to decline in the future. In order for economic growth to reach its potential growth rate as far as possible, a balance between consumption and investment should be found to promote the steady development of the economy.