Economic Architect Liu He

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  The Sun Yefang Economic Science Foundation recently announced its 2014 awards on its website. Its namesake, Sun Yefang, was one of the most prestigious economists in contemporary China, and the foundation was established in 1983 to commemorate the distinguished economist for his contributions to China’s economic science and to encourage the development of young economists. The award is considered the highest honor in China’s economics circles. The latest award-winning dissertations chosen by the foundation attracted more attention than usual, especially the thesis Comparative Study on the Two Global Crises. A comparative study of the Great Depression of the 1930s and the 2008 global economic recession, the thesis traces the similarities between the two crises, which both marked turning points in global economic and social development, analyzes laws enacted in their respective wakes, and arrives at in-depth conclusions. Author of the thesis is Liu He, vice minister of the Office of the CPC Central Leading Group for Financial and Economic Affairs, and vice head of China’s National Development and Reform Commission.
  Born in 1952, Liu has participated in designing many of China’s reform proposals and is considered the core person among China’s top think tanks for economic policy. According to a 2013 report by the Wall Street Journal, when then-U.S. National Security Adviser Tom Donilon flew to Beijing in May 2013 to set up a China-U.S. summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping introduced him to a “tall, scholarly looking aide” by his side. “This is Liu He. He is very important to me,” Xi told Donilon, according to the report. Normally low-profile Liu thus was thrust into the global spotlight.


   International Vision
  In 1971, Liu moved to a rural area as an “educated youth.” “Educated youth”refers to middle or high school graduates who worked in poverty-stricken and border areas to support local culture and economics during the “cultural revolution”(1966-1976). One year later, he joined the army. From 1978 to 1982, he studied at the Department of Industrial Economics of Renmin University of China and obtained his bachelor’s degree. From 1983 to 1986, he continued his postgraduate studies at Renmin University’s Department of Industrial Economics and earned a master’s degree in management. From 1992 to 1993, he traveled to the United States to study business administration at Seton Hall University. From 1994 to 1995, he studied and received a Masters of Public Administration at the John F. Kennedy School of Government of Harvard University, and at the same time, served as a researcher with the Edward S. Mason Program, a flagship international program of the Kennedy School. The Mason Program has been operating for 50 years. Each year, high-profile officials from developing, newly industrialized and transitional economies participate in this intensive master’s degree program designed to prepare them to address the world’s most compelling developmental challenges. Military experience coupled with an overseas academic background won Liu the nickname “returning soldier”amongst his friends.   John F. Kennedy School of Government of Harvard University, a public policy and public administration school, is one of the best in the world in terms of policy research and cultivating elite officials. Many countries have sent their most promising officials to be trained at the school. Liu’s experience abroad enables him to look at things with an international perspective. According to media reports, during the 2008 economic recession, the academic world’s opinions differed on what would exert a greater influence on China’s economy – domestic demand or external demand. Liu believed that China should place greater attention on external demand. Later, his opinion was proven correct: With the drop in China’s exports, a great number of migrant workers lost their jobs and had to return to their hometowns. He is also a co-founder of the Chinese Economists 50 Forum, a renowned independent academic entity. Launched in 1998, the forum was created by established Chinese economists who shared the common vision of using their abilities to research China’s economic issues. Today, renowned economists such as Wu Jinglian, Fan Gang, and Justin Yifu Lin are members of the forum’s academic auditing committee.
  Alongside his role as a scholar, Liu long worked for China’s National Planning Commission (now the National Development and Reform Commission) early in his career. During that period, he participated in the drafting of more than 10 national industrial policies, among which five were promulgated by China’s State Council. Liu also participated in the formulation of China’s Eighth, Ninth, Tenth, and Twelfth Five-Year Plans. The Five-Year Plans play an important role in China’s economy. They are actually a series of important social and economic development initiatives, which map strategies for economic development, set growth targets, and launch reforms.
   Low-Profile Economist
  Liu’s scholarly air leaves a deep impression on people. In recent years, he has more frequently appeared in media coverage of state-level conferences and meetings, as well as reports of top leaders’overseas visits and domestic inspections. Hearkening to swordsmen in Chinese kung fu fiction, Liu, already in his sixties, is like a crouching tiger with his low profile and outstanding skill.
  “Top-level design,” “middle-income trap,” and “transformations of economic growth patterns” are key phrases often heard from Liu. “Top-level design” was first coined by the information industry and can be found in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. Liu, who then served as the vice head of Office for Cyberspace Affairs under the State Council, participated in the entire process of drafting the guidelines. “Toplevel design should include basic value orientation, major aims and sequences leading to goals,” opines Liu. “Presently, China has long passed the phase of trying different practices randomly.” In November 2013, just before the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Communist Party of China(CPC) Central Committee, the Development Research Center of the State Council issued the research report Basic Thinking and Action Plans for a New Round of Reform, which quickly became a hot topic in the media. Liu served as the major drafter of the report, which focused on the general ideas and operating methods of China’s new round of reform.   However, Liu disagreed with media’s interpretation of his “important” role in formulating China’s economic policies. He believes that misunderstandings are frequent. He once commented that China’s economic policy is made via a collective decisionmaking system, and that the role played by any single individual is fairly limited.
   Influencing China’s Reform
  A lot of big names can be found amongst previous winners of the Sun Yefang award. Important political figures such as Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China’s central bank, and Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei, as well as prominent scholars such as Justin Yifu Lin, Fan Gang, and Jia Kang have all accepted the award.
  Liu’s award-winning work Comparative Study on the Two Global Crises is actually a summary of a research report he oversaw. Through comparative studies of the Great Depression in the 1930s and the 2008 global economic recession, Liu pres- ents many valuable ideas and formulates suggestions for the future development of China’s economy, which is considered the highlight of the report. The suggestions include setting up the bottom-line thinking mode and make plans for worst case scenario, understanding the major changes in China’s strategic opportunities and seek maximized common interests between China and the world, and that China should concentrate its resources to address its own issues. Some analysts believe the research has greatly influenced the present Chinese decision-makers.
  Since becoming vice minister of the Office of the CPC Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs in 2003, Liu has held the post for more than 10 years. A standing body of the CPC Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs, the office is not only responsible for formulating China’s important economic policies, but also for providing policy suggestions to the group. Ever since its establishment in 1980, the group has been playing a key role in the formulation of China’s economic policies.
  Liu once commented that after three decades of reform and opening up, China has now entered a new phase of development and has accumulated abundant experience. Now, facing a situation in which past development modes are outdated and various new and important reform topics are impending, including reforms of the economy, society, and political institutions, he believes they should be carried out steadily and in a coordinated manner. Against this background, a top-level design is a must, including major goals and sequences leading to their achievement. Setting a specific order of priority for achieving these goals is a complicated task, which should be determined by the practical situation.
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