通过分析地平线年度报告的预测内容、咨询委员会成员和研究方法等,指出地平线报告存在的不足之处。地平线报告的预测内容和时间常常不确定,很多方法与技术缺乏信度,咨询专家也主要来自美国。本文应用加特纳模型提出新技术发展和应用必须经过的五个阶段,对地平线项目预测的有效性进行了评价,尝试提供一种更为可靠的数据来源。 By analyzing the forecast of the annual report of the Horizons, the members of the advisory board and research methods, it points out the shortcomings in the report of the Horizons. Forecasts and timing of horizon reports are often uncertain. Many methods and techniques lack credibility and consultants are also mainly from the United States. In this paper, Gartner model is used to propose five stages that the development and application of new technology must go through. The paper evaluates the validity of horizon project prediction and attempts to provide a more reliable data source.