2004年投资形势分析与预测

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2003年我国宏观经济进入了快速增长通道。1-3季度,GDP累计增长了8.5%,全年增幅也将达到8.5%。1-3季度,全社会投资累计增长了30.5%,全年增速可能达到23%左右。如果考虑到物价因素,目前投资的实际增幅甚至高于1993-1994年的投资过热与膨胀期。投资对经济增长的贡献率也在65%以上,与1988年和1993年的投资高峰期相近。当前,各种经济类型投资均已进入加速扩张时期。中央政府投资已不再是推动投资大幅增长的主要与直接因 In 2003, China’s macro-economy entered a path of rapid growth. 1-3 quarters, GDP increased by 8.5% in aggregate, the annual increase will reach 8.5%. 1-3 quarter, the total social investment increased by 30.5%, the annual growth rate may reach about 23%. The actual increase in current investment, even taking into account the price factor, is even higher than the overheating and expansion period of investment in 1993-1994. The contribution of investment to economic growth is also above 65%, similar to the peak of investment in 1988 and 1993. At present, various types of economic investment have entered an accelerated expansion period. Central government investment is no longer the main and direct cause of the substantial growth of investment
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