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目的分析评估哈尔滨市高温热浪健康风险早期预警系统的运行情况,为进一步完善该系统提供科学依据。方法分析2013-2014年系统运行时间段不同预警级别与医院门、急诊及住院病人的相关性,评估预警系统总体运行效果。结果系统运行177天,有效运行93天,占运行天数的53%,共发出预警信号178条,其中Ⅳ级预警85条,Ⅲ级预警81条,Ⅱ级预警2条。心脑血管疾病、呼吸系统疾病、儿童呼吸系统疾病、中暑、总健康风险各占信号总数的20.24%、8.93%、28.57%、11.90%、30.36%。儿童呼吸系统疾病门、急诊就诊人数与住院人数、呼吸系统门诊人数Ⅲ级预警高于0级预警,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05),65岁以上呼吸系统疾病、心脑血管疾病死亡人数Ⅲ级、Ⅳ预警均高于0级预警,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);全人群呼吸系统疾病、心脑血管疾病死亡人数、心脑血管疾病门诊及住院病人数与预警级别之间差异无统计学意义。结论预警系统运行状况良好,预警信号发出及时,初步实现了早期预警能力,但仍需进一步调整和完善,以获得更为科学准确的预警信息。
Objective To analyze and evaluate the operation of early warning system for health risks of high temperature and heat waves in Harbin and provide scientific basis for further improvement of the system. Methods The correlation between different alert levels and hospital door, emergency and inpatient system during 2013-2014 system operation period was analyzed to evaluate the overall operation effect of early warning system. Results The system was operated for 177 days, effectively operating for 93 days and accounting for 53% of the operating days. A total of 178 warning signals were issued, of which 85 were Ⅳ, 85 were Ⅲ and 2 were Ⅱ. Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, children’s respiratory diseases, heat stroke and total health risks accounted for 20.24%, 8.93%, 28.57%, 11.90% and 30.36% of the total number of signals respectively. The number of children with respiratory diseases, the number of emergency visits and hospitalizations, the number of respiratory outpatients with grade Ⅲ warning were higher than those of grade 0, with significant difference (P <0.05), the number of respiratory diseases and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases over 65 years old Ⅲ, Ⅳ early warning were higher than the 0 warning, the difference was statistically significant (P <0.05); the whole population of respiratory diseases, deaths of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease outpatient and inpatient number and warning level The difference was not statistically significant. Conclusion The early warning system is in good working condition and the early warning signal is issued in time and the early warning capability is initially realized. However, the early warning system still needs to be further adjusted and improved so as to obtain more scientific and accurate warning information.