渤海X油田即将进入高含水阶段开发,由于其措施增油效果不明显,综合调整的难度加大,因此准确把握高含水期油田的开发趋势,分析油田自然递减和含水上升率变化趋势,对油田开发工作的正确运行有着至关重要的作用.通过对渤海X油田的含水上升规律与产量递减规律的研究,发现理论的含水上升率总体呈先上升后下降的趋势,且初期变化最高,在含水为35％时达到最大值.在定液量生产下,产量达到高峰值时递减率为零;递减开始时递减率呈先上升后下降的趋势,结合分析该油田实际生产资料,分析得出该油田自然递减率控制良好,仍有下降空间.在中低含水阶段(fw＜60％)无因次采油指数下降趋势较平缓,是油田稳产有利时机,含水率在fw为80％时出现一个明显增大的拐点,无因次采液指数会出现急剧上升的现象,因此在fw＞80％后可进行后期大幅度提液.“,”Bohai X oilfield is entering high water cut stage development,because the oil increase effect is not obvious and comprehensive adjustment is increasingly difficult,so it is important to accurately grasp the trend of high water cut stage of oilfield development and analyze the oilfield natural decline and water cut rising rate change trend,which has the vital role for the proper operation of the oil field development.The law of water cut increase and production decline in Bohai X oilfield is studied,and the results show that the theoretical water cut rising rate appears the trend of rising first and declining subsequently,the change is more obvious in the initial stage and maximizing when water cut is 35％.Under fixed fluid volume production,the decline rate is zero when the output reaches peak value,and appears the trend of rising first and declining subsequently.Combined with the analysis of the field actual production data,it is concluded that the natural decline rate of field is well controlled,and there is a decline space remained.In low and medium water cut stage (fw＜60％),dimensionless oil recovery index declines more gentle,which provide favorable opportunity for stable oil field production;there is an obvious inflection point of increase when the moisture content is 80％,and the dimensionless fluid productivity index will increase sharply,so when the moisture content is larger than 80％,enhancing liquid by a wide margin can be carried out.