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干线天然气管道是我国重要的战略能源通道,其供气可靠性评价对于充分发挥整个干线天然气管道的社会经济效益起着举足轻重的作用,但国内对该领域的研究尚未起步。从供气可靠性的评价指标、计算模型两个方面展开调研、分析与整合,提出一种以供气可靠度为评价指标,基于“气源-管道系统-储气调峰-用户端”动态分析模型,通过水力热力模拟和统计学相结合的方法评价干线天然气管道供气可靠性,并对未来的供气系统可靠性评价提出具体建议和指导。
The trunk natural gas pipeline is an important strategic energy channel in China. The evaluation of gas supply reliability plays a decisive role in giving full play to the social and economic benefits of the trunk gas pipeline. However, the research in this field in China has not yet started. Based on the evaluation index of gas supply reliability and the calculation model, the research, analysis and integration are carried out. Based on the evaluation of gas supply reliability and the evaluation index based on gas supply and piping system, "Dynamic analysis model to evaluate the reliability of gas supply to trunk gas pipelines through a combination of hydrothermal simulation and statistics, and put forward specific suggestions and guidance for the future gas supply system reliability assessment.