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本文针对于转轨时期中国经济一直呈现高投资、低消费但却相对平稳增长这一有悖于标准理论的事实,在对 Ramsey-cass-Koopmans 模型进行修正的基础上,对这一现象给出了一个解释框架。结论是,资本边际产出的非递减特征与渐进的利率市场化改革是保证中国高投资、低消费条件下仍可保持经济长期平稳增长的两个必要条件,而更新改造投资、非国有与集体投资占总投资比重以及政府的非消费性支出都是导致资本边际产出非递减的因素。因此,从政策实践的角度来说,对于长期的经济增长,如何对资本边际产出与利率变化进行政策协调以及根据资本边际产出背后的控制因素变化适时地制定新的产业政策变得非常有意义。
In view of the fact that China’s economy has been contrary to the standard theory of high investment and low consumption but relatively stable growth during the transitional period, this article gives an explanation based on the Ramsey-cass-Koopmans model An explanation framework. The conclusion is that the non-decreasing feature of marginal product of capital and the gradual reform of interest rate marketization are two necessary conditions for ensuring long-term steady economic growth under the conditions of high investment and low consumption in China. However, the reform and transformation of investment, non-state-owned and collective The proportion of investment to total investment and the government’s non-expenditures are the non-decreasing factors that lead to the marginal output of capital. Therefore, from a policy practice point of view, it becomes very important for the long-term economic growth to formulate a new industrial policy in a timely manner on how to coordinate the policy on the marginal product of capital and the change in interest rates and on the change of control factors behind the marginal product of capital significance.