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量化评价新兴技术产业化发展过程,并客观分析各个阶段的可行性与风险,是一项具有实际应用意义的研究课题。遵循新技术产业化规律,以及各个关键时间节点投资决策的原则,构建了基于产业成熟度评价方法的新技术项目投资决策分析方法:首先,运用产业成熟度评价方法量化评价技术、制造、市场的发展现状,并预测未来发展时序;然后,依据评价结果判断各个阶段的投资可行性,综合集成相关领域专家的知识及经验,为新技术项目提供决策支撑。案例示范表明,该分析方法具有客观性和可操作性。其不仅能够应用于航天技术转化项目的咨询评估,也可为企业产品升级、创新基金投资、军民两用技术转化工程等商业项目提供投资咨询支持。
Quantifying and evaluating the industrialization process of emerging technologies and objectively analyzing the feasibility and risks in all stages is a practical research topic. Following the rule of industrialization of new technology and the principle of investment decision at each key time node, a new technology project investment decision analysis method based on industrial maturity evaluation method is constructed. Firstly, the method of industrial maturity evaluation is used to quantitatively evaluate the technology, manufacture and market Development status quo and forecast future development timing; then, based on the evaluation results to determine the feasibility of investment in all stages, integrated knowledge and experience of experts in related fields, to provide decision support for new technology projects. The demonstration of the case shows that the analysis method is objectivity and maneuverability. It can not only be applied to consulting and evaluation of aerospace technology conversion projects, but also provide investment advisory support for commercial projects such as enterprise product upgrading, investment in innovation funds, and dual-purpose military and civilian technology conversion projects.