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在过去的三十年中,包括铜矿在内的采矿和金属两个行业,未能给我们带来足以同国际资本市场进行有力竞争的经济回报。由于我们的产品同人类的福祉攸关,我们的地位理应得到加强才是。作为资本密集型产业,为了放眼长远,求得生存,我们必须从诸多方面进行变革,变革之一就是亟需通过我们的产业来开发和运用知识和智力。本文旨在检讨,在过去十年的43个具体项目中,在200亿美元的非生产性资本投资中,对知识的利用是如何少之又少;同时,从这些失败案例的分析中,本文企图找到同资本项目中的风险管理息息相关的关键之处。这43个按工业标准来看未能成功的项目分析,表明三分之二以上的项目分段计划不当,三分之二以上的项目其执行团队从方案到投产未能前后连贯一致,而40%以上的项目则在“高阶段开发”方面存在严重问题。在大多数情况下,至少有两个因素并存。结合其他重要研究的类似结论,可以明显看到,这些工业项目都大大地违背了项目风险管理的基本原则。另外一个相关问题是,我们工业中的知识资本降低了。一个很明显的症状是“争先恐后”地使用新技术。这样导致了采矿和冶金行业的研发能力急剧下降。其他竞争行业比如铝业,其研发投资则继续加大。此外,极少供货商还保留有像样的开发力量。我们的工业利用现有知识和开发新知识的能力江河日下。另外,在知识库进一步推陈出新和日益消减之前,必需进行大量的知识转让和开发创新。人口老化因素也使得这一点成为经合组织(OECD)国家中一个迫在眉睫的问题。
In the past three decades, mining and metals, including copper mines, have failed to bring us enough economic returns to compete effectively with international capital markets. As our products are vital to the well-being of humanity, our status should be strengthened. As a capital-intensive industry, in order to look ahead and survive, we must make changes from many aspects. One of the changes is the urgent need to develop and apply knowledge and intelligence through our industry. This article aims to review how very little knowledge is being used in the $ 20 billion of unproductive capital investment out of the 43 specific projects of the past decade. At the same time, from the analysis of these failed cases, Attempts to find the key points that are relevant to risk management in capital projects. The 43 project analyzes that were unsuccessful by industry standards showed that more than two thirds of the projects were improperly phased out and more than two thirds of the projects had their execution teams consistently coherent from program to commissioning, % Of projects have serious problems with “high-level development ”. In most cases, at least two factors coexist. Combined with similar conclusions from other important studies, it is clear that these industrial projects have largely contravened the basic principles of project risk management. Another related issue is the reduced intellectual capital in our industry. One obvious symptom is the use of new technology. This has led to a sharp decline in the R & D capabilities of the mining and metallurgical industries. Other competing industries such as aluminum, its R & D investment continues to increase. In addition, very few suppliers still retain a decent development effort. Our industry can capitalize on existing knowledge and ability to develop new knowledge. In addition, a great deal of knowledge transfer and development innovation are necessary before the knowledge base is further refined and diminishing. The aging factor also makes this a pressing issue in OECD countries.