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The coupling model of major influence factors such as environmental relative humidity, load-induced crack and stress state affecting the chloride diffusion process in concrete is discussed.The probability distributions of the critical chloride concentration Cc, the chloride diffusion coefficient D, and the surface chloride concentration Cs were determined based on the collected natural exposure data.And the estimation of probability of corrosion initiation considering the coupling effects of influence factors is presented.It is found that the relative humidity and curing time are the most effective factors affecting the probability of corrosion initiation before and after 10 years of exposure time.At the same exposure time, the influence of load-induced crack and stress state on the probability of corrosion initiation is obvious, in which the effect of crack is the most one.